Long-range Forecasts Based on the Methodology of Integral Macro Forecasting

Based on the methodology of integral macro forecasting which fundamentals were first published in 1992 in the book of Yu.V. Yakovets ‘Foresight of the Future – a Paradigm of Cyclicity’ a series of various long-range forecasts has been developed.

In 1993, a forecast of the formation of the post-industrial civilization was published in the book by Yu.V. Yakovets ‘At the Cradle of a New Civilization’ (in Russian and in English) and its major features were determined.

In 1995, a forecast of the nature and structure of the post-industrial civilization, dynamics of the structure of US and Russian economy for a period to 2060 was validated in the treatise of Yu. V. Yakovets ‘History of Civilizations’ (2^nd edition, 1997). This forecast was further developed and detailed in the treatises ‘Cycles. Crises. Forecasts’ (1990) and ‘The Past and the Future of Civilizations’ (2000).

In 1996, a long-range forecast of the development of spiritual sphere in Russia was substantiated in the scientific report to the 8^th cross-disciplinary discussion ‘Regularities and Outlooks of Cyclical Dynamics of Science, Culture and Education’.

The same year the outlooks of dynamics of the structure of market economy by reproductive sectors, branches, and technological orders based on a reproductive-cyclical macro model were determined in the treatise of Yu.V. Yakovets ‘Economy of Russia: Changes and Outlooks’ and the scientific paper ‘Outlooks of Dynamics of Russian Economy. A Long-range Forecast for a period to 2020’.

In 2003 and 2004, the treatise of B.N. Kuzyk, A.I. Ageyev, etc. validated the forecast of dynamics of Russia to 2080 based on the strategic matrix, and it was further expanded on in the treatise of B.N. Kuzyk ‘Russian and the World in the 21^st Century’ (2005) and in the book of B.N. Kuzyk and M.L. Titarenko ‘Russia-China-2050: a Strategy of Co-development’.

In the treatise of B.N. Kuzyk and Yu. V. Yakovets ‘Russia-2050: Strategies of Innovative Breakthrough’ (2004, 2^nd edition 2005) a forecast of innovative development of Russia in the context of world tendencies was published for a period to 2050, and also a forecast of dynamics of economy and foreign trade of Russia for the same outlook applying reproductive-cyclical and geo-civilizational macro models.

A long-range forecast of development of global, world and local civilizations (to 2100) was published and substantiated based on expert evaluations using geo-civilizational and strategic matrices was published in the fundamental treatise of B.N. Kuzyk and Yu.V Yakovets ‘Civilizations: Theory, History, Dialogue, and the Future’ (2006, Volume 2)

The report at the round table sessions in Moscow (4.10.2006) and New York (10.10.2006) made by B.N. Kuzyk and Yu. V. Yakovets ‘Future of the World and Russia - a Manifesto of Integral Macro Forecasting’ included a forecast of dynamics of world economy for a period to 2050 based on an 8-factor geo-civilizational matrix and a forecast of dynamics of the structure and external ties of Russian economy for the same period.

In November 2006, an integral forecast of innovative-technological and structural dynamics of Russian economy in the context of world tendencies for a period to 2030 made by INES, SKII, RAGS and RAS Computer Center will appear.

The proposals for development of a long-range global forecast of socio-economic, innovative-technological, power-environmental and civilizational development to 2050 have been prepared within the UN framework.

Thus, the methodology of integral macro forecasting has been tested and found its application in a number of published long-range forecasts of dynamics of Russian and world economy, world, local and global civilizations.