Regularities and Tendencies of Energy and Ecological Dynamics

Human is a product of the evolution of natural systems and is inseparably connected with it. Society draws sources of energy and material resources from nature and depends on the natural environment and renders a rising impact on it. The core of V.I. Vernadsky’s theory is in it that was later expounded by N.N. Moisseyev with respect to a new stage of co-evolution of transition and society.

The interrelation of nature and society is traced most tangibly in energy. Society takes major sources of primary energy from nature – woodfuel and fossil fuel, and energy, water, wind, electricity and nuclear energy. The use of these sources causes the most substantial damage to the environment as emissions of deleterious gases, radioactive contaminations thus resulting in adverse changes in climate. The energy sector comprises all areas of reproduction and life of society in actual fact (see Fig.): prospection, production, refining, transportation of various fuel and energy, their use in all sectors of economy and households, export and import.

The energy sector develops according to the regularities of cyclical dynamics. Energy and ecological revolutions happen once in several millennia (now centuries) that result in the establishment of a new energy and ecological mode of production.

The first energy revolution occurred in the Neolith when reproduction economy emerged (farming and cattle husbandry), human muscular energy was completed by energy of tamed animals. Ancillary farming undermined local eco-systems, cattle trampled grass (nomadic husbandry).

The second energy revolution evolved in the 3rd millennium A.C. when the flood periods and solar energy were used and leaded to the creation of the system of irrigation farming; but sometimes flooding resulted in the loss of individual countries and civilizations.

Table 1.
Energy Revolutions

The second energy revolution evolved in the 3rd millennium A.C. in the valleys of great historical rivers (Nile, Tigris and Euphrates, Indus and Ganges, Huang He and Yangtze) and became the basis for the emergence of the first generation of local civilizations based on a highly productive irrigation husbandry, and also the development of river transport and contacts between civilizations, international trade and military campaigns.

The third energy revolution dates back to the Middle Ages and is in the use of wind power and energy of falling water for construction of network of wind and water mills, development of sailing fleet. This became the basis for the development of various crafts with autonomous energy sources, sea trips with an active exchange between countries and civilizations, and further – for great geographical discoveries, discovery and mastering of America and beginning the foundation of colonies (Spanish, Portuguese, and then British). of the 19th cc. became the nucleus of the industrial revolution and was in mastering of steam energy and energy of mineral coal, invention of steam engines, steam locomotives, steamers, a prerequisite for the establishment of the world system of economy and colonial division of the world. At the same time atmosphere pollution intensified in the major industrial centers. Western Europe became the epicenter of revolution (first of Great Britain), and than the USA.

The fifth energy revolution evolved at the end of the 19th – beginning of the 20th cc. in the USA, Western Europe and was in mastering electricity and liquid fuel. This permitted to transmit energy to distance using electric networks, implement electrification of production and households, create road and air transport, considerably reduce transport costs. Concurrently the environmental pollution intensified by gas emissions from power plants and transport.

The six energy revolution was underway from the middle of the 20th c., from mastering nuclear energy, invention of nuclear and hydrogen weapons and nuclear energy, and also accelerated development of gas energy. Damage to nature increased as a result of nuclear explosions, steam plants, the countries enveloped in the networks of pipelines, a threat of a global eco-catastrophe aggravated. The leaders of this revolution were the USA, USSR, Western Europe, and Japan.

The seventh energy revolution just begins and is a response to a global energy and ecological crisis the signs of which are aggravating from the end of the 20th c. The major outlines of this revolution: a transition from the prevalence of fossil fuel to alternative, ecologically clean sources of energy, including highly technological (nuclear reactors of new generations, hydrogen energy); a relative, and then absolute reduction of hazardous emissions into atmosphere, prevention of irreversible changes in climate; priority to energy saving technologies both in production and household, housing and utilities; reducing a share of cost for power supply, and cheapening of such energy. The leaders of such energy and ecological revolution are Northern American, Western European and Japanese civilizations. The energy and ecological crisis has mostly hit the African civilization. The peak of the evolvement of energy and ecological revolution in the vanguard countries will fall to the 20s-40s of the 21st c.

Energy revolutions will also occur in future as the prime components of the emerging new technological and ecological modes of production, systems of technological orders. Along with that it should be noted its one specific feature: a reduction of time periods between them as result of the general law of compression of historical time, speeding up the rates of a technological progress.

The regularities of the development of energy sector were researched into by Academician T.M. Krzhizhanovsky – one of the GOELRO plan originators. He observed that humanity steps over an energy threshold from time to time (as a manifestation of a global energy crisis) that opens new spaces for development of production forces.

In the treatises of Yu.V. Yakovets ‘Regularities of Scientific-Technological Progress and Their Systematic Use’ (1984), ‘Speeding Up Scientific-Technological Progress’: Theory and Economic Mechanism’ (1988), ‘History of Civilizations’ (1995, 1997), ‘Cycles. Crises. Forecasts’ (1999), ‘The Past and the Future of Civilizations’ (2000), B.N. Kuzyk, Yu. V. Yakovets ‘Russia-2050: Strategy of Innovative Breakthrough’, ‘Civilization: Theory, History, Dialogue and the Future’ (2006), B.N. Kuzyk ‘Russia and World in the 21st Century’ (2005) researched into the regularities and tendencies in the development of global and national energy sector, given general outlines of emerging global energy and ecological revolution and its possible effect.